Amy will think this is funny...but I got hooked watching a primetime network TV show two three nights ago. Yessir, I was sucked in by Deal or No Deal. I was sucked in by the promos during the Olympics. I wondered how I had missed a "international phenomenon". So, when I happened across an episode, I stopped channel surfing and started watching.
Then I became confused. Contestants were turning down offers for $90,000+ and eventually ending up with much lower. It took two rounds, but I finnally figured out how the game worked. Right then I became much more intrigued by what looked like classic economic game theory, right there on NBC; being cheered on by a pretty wild audience.
The point of the game is that the contestant can make quite a bit of money, provided they pick the right briefcases, correctly weigh some probabilities and the expected value of those briefcases. So I tried to figure out a dominant strategy to win at this game...Only, I'm not sure one exists. I think the successful contestant (on this show everyone wins, its just a matter of how much you win) would have to be lucky in what cases they pick, and know when to stop. I suppose trying to calculate the formula used to make offers could be useful; but not by much, because that could change at any time.
Does anybody have a better theory?
21 Months
11 years ago
1 comment:
I think the theory is randomly pick cases and hope you win big money. People watch this to see other people win and lose big money not because they dig economic theory. Don't tell them is economics, you'll ruin the ratings.
So glad you are participating in pop phenomenon. love amy
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